Prospects of using agro-scouting methods in forecasting corn yield capacity
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31210/spi2026.29.01.02Keywords:
corn, yield capacity, depth of precipitation, correlation, agro-scoutingAbstract
Based on modern scientific publications, the analysis of methods for assessing the agro-meteorological indicators’ impact on the formation of corn yield capacity was conducted; the methods of creating prognostic models with the use of regression analysis were also analyzed. The purpose of the studies was to determine the effect of distribution and the depth of precipitation in a definite locality. The materials for the research were the data of meteorological indicators from local weather stations during 2023–2025 and the actual data of enterprises’ production agro-ecosys-tems concerning corn yield capacity. It has been found that as a result of unfavorable weather factors, yield losses can make 40–50 % and more in comparison with favorable time and space distribution. One of the indicators of yield stability can be the coefficient of variation, which under favorable conditions made 15 %, i.e. yield variability was average, and during the following years of studies the variation was considerable – (V% = 21…39 %). The use of data from the local meteorological stations, installed by agrarians enables to create a vast database for constructing models to form crop yield capacity. Quite a large number of such stations at modern enterprises make it possible to develop the models in space sense, thus, shortening the observations’ duration, and in this way optimizing time aspect. The obtained data of observations enabled to make the conclusion concerning the limiting role of uneven geographical and time distribution of the depth of precipitation during corn vegetation period, which resulted in 40–50 % yield losses. Among the reliable indicators for yield forecasting can become the determining of monthly depth of precipitation during March – August period (r = 0.29…0.51), seasonal and pair monthly periods (r = 0.31…0.57). The average correlation was also observed with the sum of precipitation for the year and during the vegetation period – the coefficients made 0.41 and 0.49, respectively. The presence of considerable yield capacity correlation with the depth of precipitation in the early spring period proves the importance of their start character for corn areas in Poltava region, where agrarians often practice early spring sowing time. The presented research results are the evidence of large prospects for the use of agro-scouting methods on the example of measuring the depth of precipitation.
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